Data health & evaluation

Published data health

Data checks delayed or unavailable

Workers: Attention required: worker heartbeat overdue

Heartbeat evidence describes the last recorded unattended run. An overdue or unverified heartbeat needs operator review; it is not proof that a worker is running.

Published: 2026-10-30T17:45:00.091Z · Status checked: 2026-10-30T23:24:15.600Z

2024: 285/285 completed games covered · Latest game 2025-02-09 · Missing 0 · Duplicates 0 · Rejected 22

2025: 285/285 completed games covered · Latest game 2026-02-08 · Missing 0 · Duplicates 0 · Rejected 22

2026: 108/108 completed games covered · Latest game 2026-10-29 · Missing 0 · Duplicates 0 · Rejected 8

Prospective prediction performance

Browse complete prediction history ↗

Only genuinely pregame forecasts with verified outcomes qualify. Missing outcomes and DNPs are separate. No sample means unavailable performance.

passing_yards: verified N=0 · MAE Unavailable · RMSE Unavailable · Pending 42 · Missing 0 · DNP 0

rushing_yards: verified N=0 · MAE Unavailable · RMSE Unavailable · Pending 155 · Missing 0 · DNP 0

receiving_yards: verified N=0 · MAE Unavailable · RMSE Unavailable · Pending 385 · Missing 0 · DNP 0

receptions: verified N=0 · MAE Unavailable · RMSE Unavailable · Pending 385 · Missing 0 · DNP 0

Missed forecast windows: 0. These are never backfilled as successful predictions.

Retrospective backtesting

Historical reconstruction is separate from prospective results.

Evaluated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z

passing_yards: N=222 · MAE 63.869563099284434 · RMSE 79.38880463539627 · Bias -10.593280408411989 · Coverage 87%

rushing_yards: N=745 · MAE 16.835731102921837 · RMSE 24.264432237642133 · Bias 0.3467244944102023 · Coverage 78%

receiving_yards: N=1782 · MAE 17.158983269124285 · RMSE 24.55109647414514 · Bias 0.12439101544760851 · Coverage 79%

receptions: N=1782 · MAE 1.3311724779732363 · RMSE 1.8218677075103002 · Bias -0.0054584057281959865 · Coverage 88%