Projections delayed · Baselines retained unless validation and holdout gates pass. Probabilities are preliminary; no guaranteed outcomes. Cached forecast is older than six hours or input checks are delayed; retained estimates are not live.
Generated 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z · Source updates 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Strictly prior-date, regular-season appearances; same-day observations excluded. Upstream corrections are retrospective, not archived pregame information. No automatic odds polling.
967 eligible projections · 427 players
Model evaluation and limitations
Recorded holdout evaluation is separate from genuinely pregame results. Point-in-time injuries, starter certainty and live availability are not established. Missing forecasts are withheld, never invented.
Market
Verified N
MAE
RMSE
Bias
Coverage
Multiclass Brier
Calibration
Passing yards
222
63.9
79.4
-10.6
87%
0.496
Not validated
Rushing yards
745
16.8
24.3
0.3
78%
0.486
Research thresholds only
Receiving yards
1782
17.2
24.6
0.1
79%
0.487
Research thresholds only
Receptions
1782
1.3
1.8
-0.0
88%
0.510
Not validated
New forecast issuance and verified outcomes are tracked separately from retrospective backtests. View data health & evaluation ↗
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 87%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -1.0. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over55%
Estimated under45%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 237.0 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-18. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 222 eligible observations · MAE 63.9 · RMSE 79.4. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -1.0. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over32%
Estimated under68%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 36.2 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-18. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 87%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.1. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over56%
Estimated under44%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 210.3 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-04. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 222 eligible observations · MAE 63.9 · RMSE 79.4. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.3. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over33%
Estimated under67%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 32.9 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-04. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.3. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over36%
Estimated under64%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 68.9 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-26. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.2. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over33%
Estimated under67%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 14.4 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-26. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.6. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over30%
Estimated under70%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 2.0 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-26. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -1.0. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over36%
Estimated under64%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 97.4 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.4. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over32%
Estimated under68%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 9.8 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.4. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over28%
Estimated under72%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 1.1 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.3. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over35%
Estimated under65%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 60.8 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.5. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over31%
Estimated under69%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 4.8 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.9. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over34%
Estimated under66%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 78.0 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.5. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over33%
Estimated under67%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 6.7 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.6. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over34%
Estimated under66%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 61.3 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-22. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.6. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over30%
Estimated under70%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 4.7 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-22. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.7. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over36%
Estimated under64%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 56.0 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.9. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over31%
Estimated under69%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 17.4 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -1.0. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over23%
Estimated under77%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 2.6 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 87%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.8. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over55%
Estimated under45%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 226.9 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 222 eligible observations · MAE 63.9 · RMSE 79.4. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.5. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over32%
Estimated under68%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 4.0 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 78%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.1. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over36%
Estimated under64%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 2.7 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 745 eligible observations · MAE 16.8 · RMSE 24.3. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 79%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.8. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over30%
Estimated under70%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 3.1 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Research-threshold calibration checks passed; actual sportsbook-threshold calibration remains unvalidated. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 17.2 · RMSE 24.6. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.
Nominal range; measured holdout coverage 88%. Conditional on an appearance; no injury or starter certainty.
No real sportsbook quote for this game. Manual research threshold only.
Example research threshold · Projection minus threshold: -0.2. Changing a threshold does not alter the projection.
Estimated over32%
Estimated under68%
Estimated push0%
Distribution expected value: 0.4 (distinct from the point projection). Model-derived empirical probabilities, not historical hit rates. Calibration checks incomplete or failed — preliminary probabilities. Not a betting recommendation. Delayed input or forecast cache; these are retained estimates, not live forecasts.
Forecast context and limitations
Based on recorded appearances before the forecast date. Latest eligible player record: 2026-10-25. Your research threshold and sportsbook prices do not alter the stored estimate. Internal model calculations remain server-side.
Recorded projection history
Insufficient projection history. No earlier issued forecasts are inferred.
Input freshness and provenance
Source updates: 2026-10-20T06:58:45.973Z, 2026-10-20T06:58:45.222Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:46.135Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:42.797Z, 2026-10-20T07:07:41.424Z, 2026-10-30T12:24:47.956Z. Generated: 2026-10-30T12:24:52.904Z. These timestamps describe recorded inputs, not live player availability.
Verified historical evaluation
Recorded holdout · 1782 eligible observations · MAE 1.3 · RMSE 1.8. Market-wide retrospective results, not personal accuracy or prospective profitability.